As AI promises to speed up idea generation and development, Guy White asks, will it drive smarter products or just faster failures?
Global brands invest billions each year in research, product development and marketing, yet statistics show that at least half of all new products flop within two years.
When this happens, the usual suspects are blamed: poor retailer negotiations, supply chain problems or weak marketing. All play a part, but the truth is simpler: a product survives only if it solves real consumer needs.
And that’s more complicated than “does it do what it says?” Does it tap into desires, solve hidden tensions or deliver more value than what already exists?
The FMCG market is full of examples of breakthrough innovation – meal kits with pre-measured ingredients that reduce waste while encouraging fresh cooking, or reusable personal care products that offer both effectiveness and sustainability. When products connect with unspoken consumer tensions, they win. When they don’t, they vanish.
With more tools and technology than ever, it might seem innovation should be easier. AI, in particular, has the industry excited – but will it really deliver what brands need?
Currently, AI is used in two ways: to turbocharge idea generation and to enhance existing processes. It can produce hundreds of new product ideas or variants in minutes and take on the grunt work of research, insight analysis and execution. Traditionally a slow, manual task, AI can now process years of reviews, social media chatter and feedback in hours. It can assist with concept creation, design drafting and even forecasting, spotting weak spots early so innovation teams avoid costly mistakes.
This allows brands to move faster without cutting corners, making the innovation process quicker and broader. But speed aside, can it make innovation more effective?
There’s no shortcut. At the core of innovation lies genuine consumer understanding: identifying jobs to be done, pain points and unmet needs. AI excels at data gathering and analysis, but it lacks human intuition, empathy and cultural awareness. It doesn’t know why someone craves comfort food after a hard day, or why they’d pay more for a refillable deodorant. It can remix the past, but it cannot sense aspiration, desire or contradiction.
Unchecked, this can lead to faster failure. AI might rank a flavour idea highly because the data suggests it should work, yet without human insight, a product that looks perfect on paper could flop in the real world. AI is ultimately backward-looking – it learns from what has been, not what could be.
That is why human creativity, strategy and emotional intelligence remain indispensable. The effective use of AI in innovation requires a hybrid approach: let the technology do the heavy lifting, while people apply judgement, empathy and strategy.
AI will not solve FMCG’s staggering innovation failure rate alone. It isn’t a magic wand. But it is a powerful accelerant. It can amplify the strengths of teams who truly understand their consumers and markets – and expose the weaknesses of those who do not.
The brands that win will be those who pair human intuition with AI horsepower, using technology not as a replacement but as a partner. AI will not decide whether the next product becomes a household favourite or vanishes from shelves within a year – but it will help the best innovators get there faster, and with better odds of success.
Guy White is the CEO of Catalyx
