Everyday ingredients are under threat from disease, climate and ecological pressures. Katy Gallagher and Anisha Hebbar reveal how brands can adapt, protect supply, and keep consumer trust intact
As consumers, we often take product availability for granted. Whether it’s picking up eggs for baking, reaching for our usual shampoo, or grabbing a snack on the way to work, we expect trusted brands to always be on the shelf. But what happens when biological shocks disrupt access to key ingredients?
A biological shock refers to sudden supply chain disruption driven by factors like disease outbreaks or ecological stressors, and their frequency is increasing. Everyday products from eggs and cocoa to almonds are vulnerable to agricultural and climate-linked disruption.
A new operating normal
In 2024/25, a resurgence of avian flu disrupted poultry and egg production, with UK egg prices rising by up to 20% since the start of the year. Across West Africa, cocoa prices more than tripled following severe drought and disease in growing regions.
In parallel, longer-term environmental trends are creating risks. Ongoing pollinator decline threatens crops like almonds, apples, and berries. Similarly, land degradation and the associated loss in soil productivity pose one of the biggest threats to our future food security.
It’s important to distinguish between sudden biological shocks, such as the avian flu and longer-term environmental trends. While the former drive immediate price spikes, the latter represent gradual, systemic risks that erode supply resilience over time.
Although COVID‑19 prompted many businesses to reassess supplier diversification, biological and environmental shocks remain ever‑present and perhaps escalating. According to a 2023 World Economic Forum report, climate-related supply chain disruptions could rise by 35% over the next decade, intensifying risks to cost, supply stability, and sustainability.
For many companies, eggs, for example, are critical ingredients in everything from baked goods and sauces to cosmetics and personal care products. And it’s not just animal-derived ingredients – farming-dependent categories like cocoa, almonds, and avocados also face increased risk.
How leading brands are adapting
Companies have shown that when biological shocks hit, they can adapt in different ways, whether it is by using more of the natural resource, developing alternatives or rethinking recipes.
- Nestlé: Confronted with declining harvests in key growing regions, Nestlé pioneered a now-patented solution to maximise its use of the cocoa fruit. This innovative process incorporates the typically discarded pulp and husk, increasing the usable portion of the fruit by up to 30%. The result is a significant improvement in yield and a reduction in waste; all achieved without altering the final chocolate’s flavour. This represents a strategic reformulation designed to adapt to climate-induced agricultural pressures.
- Mondelez International: Experts warn that without intervention, cocoa shortages could make chocolate unaffordable within two decades. In response, Mondelez, the company behind Oreo, is investing in lab-grown cocoa through a partnership with Celleste Bio. Their goal is to create a scalable, affordable alternative by 2027 – signalling that the future of food may come from labs as well as farms.
- Bird Bros: Effective crisis management doesn’t always depend on significant innovation, as rapid adaptation is often more critical. During the 2025 avian flu outbreaks, UK egg supplier Bird Bros mitigated severe disruptions by focusing on supply chain transparency. Their detailed forecasting allowed them to provide early warnings to wholesalers about upcoming shortages. This enabled retailers to manage their demand and orders proactively, preventing panic buying and stockouts. The case demonstrates how suppliers flagging risks early can stabilise the downstream value chain and protect both retailers and consumer brands from sudden shocks.
Whether through recipe innovation, supplier diversification, or smarter forecasting, companies that act early not only protect supply but also strengthen consumer trust at a time when shoppers expect brands to manage risk responsibly.
These disruptions are no longer one-offs. They are becoming part of a new operating normal. Consumer expectations don’t pause when supply chains falter, so consumer products organisations that wait to react will lose ground to those that anticipate and adapt.
How is it then that consumer product companies can prepare for future biological disruptions?
By building resilient supply chains that anticipate risks, adapt quickly, and maintain continuity even in the face of unforeseen shocks.
Key strategies to building resilience include:
- Reassess high-dependency ingredients: Don’t just focus on cost. Consider the long-term availability and sustainability of critical inputs and commodities. Identify inputs from your supply chain with high-risk dependencies (e.g. climate related) and evaluate potential alternatives.
- Enhance forecasting and risk modelling: Invest in advanced forecasting whether it be through adopting new tools or leveraging existing systems to manage volatility. With internal alignment across supply chain, procurement and operations, organisations can act faster and more cohesively when disruptions occur.
- Balance supplier diversification: A broad supplier base reduces exposure – but resilience also comes from strong supplier relationships. Trusted suppliers are more likely to flag risks early or prioritise your business in times of constraint. It’s not about putting fewer eggs in one basket but choosing the right basket.
- Rethink product or recipe strategy: Resilience also means reviewing product formulation and core inputs. Are there ways to reduce reliance on at-risk ingredients through reformulation or innovation? This requires collaboration across R&D, procurement, and commercial teams and a shift from reactive cost control measures to longer-term planning.
The era of predictable supply chains is fading. The biological shocks and environmental pressures are no longer rare events but features of a new, more volatile landscape. For consumer brands, the greatest risk lies in inaction, as consumer trust and brand loyalty don’t wait for supply chains to recover. Waiting to react is no longer a viable strategy.
One of the most critical challenges to global food security is the degradation of land and the consequent decline in soil productivity. Destructive events, such as floods and wildfires, intensify this problem by directly impacting crop viability. Addressing this requires the development of collaborative approaches with agricultural producers to manage yields effectively. A key component of this strategy is the vigilant monitoring of soil nutrient density, an essential factor for product quality and the substantiation of health-related content claims. Ultimately, the education and promotion of sustainable agricultural practices are fundamental to facilitating soil recovery and ensuring its long-term health.
Building this level of resilience is not just about surviving the next supply shock but also about creating a fundamental competitive advantage. The brands that embrace this new reality will be the ones that not only protect their bottom line but also secure their place on the shelf and earn the lasting loyalty of their customers.
Katy Gallagher is Head of Consumer Products, and Anisha Hebbar is a Senior Consultant at 4C Associates.
